AGP Executive Report

Trade & Investment: Myanmar urged China to expand agricultural exports, investment and value-added production at a bilateral forum in Yunnan. Nineteen Myanmar companies are also set to take part in Indonesia Expo 2026. Critical Minerals: China’s rare-earth imports rose 23% in September, with Myanmar supplying 70% of the total. But most mines are in areas outside the military government’s control, complicating claims that Naypyitaw can direct this strategic trade. Economic Policy: Parliament debated commercial tax collection, road and bridge upgrades, budget allocations and tourism as the government faces pressure to improve domestic economic activity. Regional Ties: Thailand welcomed renewed US engagement with Myanmar and expects ASEAN leaders to discuss the country’s future at their November summit.

Trade and Investment: Indonesia Expo 2026 will bring 39 Indonesian organizations and 19 Myanmar companies to Yangon on Oct. 30–31, showcasing sectors from banking and energy to pharmaceuticals and textiles. Currency Policy: A Yangon regional lawmaker warned that using the COVID-era rate of K2,100 per US dollar to calculate tax revenue could cause public losses and conflict with legal requirements. Cost of Living: A global food affordability report found that an average earner in Myanmar needs 10.1 workdays to buy ten staple foods. Energy: Myanmar and Thailand are discussing energy cooperation plans, as Myanmar’s remittance income remains a major source of foreign currency.

Currency and Budget: Yangon regional MP U Hla Win Maung warned that using the Central Bank’s COVID-era rate of K2,100 per US dollar for 2027–28 revenue estimates could cause losses and conflict with the law. Separately, the President’s Office said reports of new K50,000 banknotes are false. Trade and Investment: Indonesia Expo 2026 will bring 39 Indonesian organizations and 19 Myanmar companies to Yangon on Oct. 30–31 to explore trade and investment links. Energy: Thailand and Myanmar discussed expanding cooperation in energy and natural gas, including possible joint projects with Russia in Dawei. Jobs and Pay: JobNet Myanmar launched version 3 of its online salary survey, offering employers compensation benchmarks across roles and company types. Cost of Living: A World Vision report estimates that Myanmar residents need the equivalent of 10.1 workdays to afford a basket of 10 staple foods.

Jobs and Pay: JobNet Myanmar has launched version 3 of its online salary survey, giving employers fresh compensation benchmarks as they compete for skilled workers. Climate Risk: The ADB warns that coastal flooding threatens infrastructure and trade across Asia-Pacific, with poorer communities in Myanmar among those least able to recover. Foreign Currency: Myanmar’s kyat is under pressure, while migrant remittances have become a key source of foreign exchange; tighter ID rules for workers in Thailand could put those flows at risk. Energy: Advocacy groups are urging the EU to sanction Myanmar’s entire oil and gas sector, a move that could further affect foreign investment and revenue from gas projects.

Financial Isolation: Ahead of the FATF’s Oct. 26–30 meeting, an analysis warns tougher measures could force foreign banks to review or cut ties with Myanmar banks, deepening pressure on businesses and depositors. Energy Revenues: Advocacy groups are urging the EU to sanction Myanmar’s entire oil and gas sector, arguing that limits on state oil firm MOGE leave gaps for foreign companies to keep operating. Digital Economy: Southeast Asia’s digital economy is forecast to grow 17% to US$368 billion in 2026, with Myanmar among the 10 markets covered; AI is helping drive the expansion. China Market: Myanmar honey entrepreneur Thida Win is targeting Chinese food and healthcare buyers, building market knowledge and partnerships to support rural beekeepers. Scam Crackdown: An international operation involving Myanmar identified more than US$39 billion in fraud-linked assets and thwarted over 123 million online scams. Separately, hundreds of Filipinos are reportedly working in a scam compound near Myawaddy. Student Finances: Banking disruption and difficulty transferring funds are pushing Myanmar students to consider Germany and Malaysia, where financial requirements may be easier to meet.

Digital Economy: Southeast Asia’s digital economy is forecast to grow 17% to US$368 billion in 2026, with AI supporting gains across e-commerce, travel and online media; Myanmar is among the 10 markets covered. China Market: Myanmar honey entrepreneur Thida Win is building sales prospects in China, where demand spans food, healthcare and industrial uses, offering a potential boost to rural beekeepers’ livelihoods. Energy and Industry: Myanmar is preparing to buy Russian gas as the two countries expand technology cooperation; Russia is also assisting the planned restart of the Pinpet steel mill. Foreign Currency: Migrant remittances have become the junta’s largest foreign-currency source, while workers in Thailand say regime rules on identity papers and remitting earnings are squeezing their income. Trade Risk: The ADB warns that climate hazards could cause Myanmar’s ports US$12.4 billion in annual losses by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario, disrupting infrastructure and maritime trade.

Energy and Trade: Myanmar and Thailand are discussing higher gas output, fuller pipeline use and a possible three-way energy trade initiative with Russia, alongside Thai investment in power grids and hydropower. Currency: The Central Bank has denied plans to issue K50,000 notes, calling reports false and saying it is focused on price and financial stability. China Market: China is already the top destination for Myanmar coffee, with annual exports estimated at 3,000–4,000 tonnes; industry leaders see room to grow sales. Shan social enterprise Plan Bee is also targeting Chinese food and healthcare buyers for its honey, supporting rural beekeeper livelihoods. Investment: The US has held another round of undisclosed talks with Myanmar’s military-backed government, including discussions on rare earths and other business interests; details and outcomes have not been made public.

Energy and Investment: Myanmar and Thailand discussed expanding gas production and pipeline capacity, drafting an energy agreement and exploring a trilateral power-trading initiative with Russia. Thai firms also reviewed possible investments in power grids, distribution and hydropower. China Market Push: Myanmar coffee exporters see China as a growing opportunity, with China already the sector’s top export destination. Shan-based social enterprise Plan Bee is also targeting Chinese honey buyers to support rural livelihoods. Strategic Resources: The US and Myanmar’s military-backed authorities reportedly held another round of talks in Tokyo on rare earths and other economic issues, drawing criticism from US lawmakers over potential UN recognition of the junta. Currency: The Central Bank denied plans to issue K50,000 notes, saying the reports were false.

Critical Minerals: Myanmar supplied about 7.1% of global rare-earth mine output in 2024, including dysprosium and terbium vital to electric vehicles and wind turbines. Most exports go to China, which dominates processing. Industry: The government plans to restart the Pinpet steel mill in Shan State with Russian help, while requiring clear contract terms on costs, timelines and production targets. Coffee Trade: Myanmar’s coffee sector sees China as a major growth market. Exports total about 3,000–4,000 tonnes a year, and industry leaders are building links with Yunnan businesses and coffee groups. Foreign Currency: Migrant remittances have become the junta’s largest source of foreign currency, underscoring their growing importance to Myanmar’s strained economy. Construction Costs: A new solar requirement for high-rises and commercial buildings is adding pressure on builders already facing rising material prices, import restrictions and currency volatility.

Foreign Currency: Migrant remittances have become the junta’s largest source of foreign currency, as new ID rules tighten oversight of money sent from Thailand. Coffee Trade: Myanmar’s coffee sector sees room to grow in China, already its top export destination; annual shipments to neighbouring markets are estimated at 3,000–4,000 tonnes. Industry leaders are building links with Yunnan to reach more Chinese buyers. Energy Investment: China Datang plans further hydropower, wind and solar projects, including solar developments in Naypyitaw, Mandalay and Bhamo, but says security and instability complicate investment. Minerals and Markets: US officials held a second round of talks with Myanmar’s military-backed authorities in Tokyo, with rare-earth access among the possible topics. Meanwhile, kyat depreciation and a 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan are raising concerns about inflation and fiscal pressure.

Energy Investment: China Datang plans hydropower, wind and solar projects in Myanmar, including solar sites in Naypyitaw, Mandalay and Bhamo. The company cited security risks and sanctions as investment hurdles. Strategic Minerals: Washington held another confidential meeting with Myanmar’s military-backed authorities in Tokyo. Rare-earth access may be under discussion, alongside scam compounds and a detained US businessman, Reuters reports. Fuel Supply: Shipping data indicate Iran has sent LPG and jet fuel to Myanmar despite a US naval blockade. Trade Links: A planned Yangon–Chengdu direct flight is expected to support trade and tourism, while India and Myanmar signed agreements for five quick-impact projects. Economic Strain: The kyat’s depreciation and a new regime borrowing plan have raised concerns about consumer prices and fiscal pressure.

Rare Earths and US Talks: Washington and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second meeting in Tokyo in a month. Rare earth access and shutting scam compounds are reported priorities, but no agreement has been announced. Currency and Public Finances: The kyat’s renewed slide is raising concerns about consumer prices as the regime secures approval to borrow 2.1 trillion kyats; separate reports say it is also turning to high-interest Belarusian loans. Fuel Supply: Shipping data indicate Iranian LPG and jet fuel have reached Myanmar despite US sanctions, offering a source of fuel as the regime faces supply constraints. Trade Links: A new Yangon–Chengdu direct flight is expected to support tourism and trade, while India and Myanmar signed agreements for five quick-impact projects under the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation framework. Market Access: Myanmar has adopted 1,131 national standards aimed at helping businesses meet international requirements and reach wider export markets.

Rare Earths and Diplomacy: Washington and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second round of undisclosed talks in Tokyo in a month. Rare earth access may be on the agenda, but the latest discussions’ details remain unclear. Currency and Borrowing: The kyat has weakened to about K4,600–4,700 per US dollar on the informal market, raising concern over consumer prices as the regime seeks approval for K2.1 trillion in central-bank borrowing. Fuel Supply: Shipping data show an Iranian jet-fuel tanker reached Myanmar in September despite US sanctions, while Iran has also continued some LPG exports. Trade Links: Myanmar Airways International launched a Yangon–Chengdu route, carrying 98 business travellers on its inaugural flight; the connection is expected to support trade, investment and tourism.

US Engagement: Washington and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second round of talks in Tokyo, with rare-earth access and action against online scam centres among the issues shaping renewed contact. Currency Pressure: The kyat has slipped to about K4,600–4,700 per US dollar on the informal market, raising concern over consumer prices as the regime faces fiscal strain. Fuel Supply: Shipping data indicate an Iranian jet-fuel tanker reached Myanmar in September despite US sanctions and a blockade on Iranian exports. Trade Links: Myanmar Airways International has launched a Yangon–Chengdu service, aimed at supporting tourism, trade and investment; the route is currently operating three flights every two weeks. Regional Projects: India and Myanmar signed five Mekong-Ganga cooperation agreements covering water and sanitation, road upgrades, boiler operations, sports facilities and software support. Borrowing Costs: Myanmar’s parliament approved loans from Belarusian state banks, with interest rates reaching nearly 10%, as the regime seeks funds for imports.

Air Links and Trade: Myanmar Airways International launched Yangon–Chengdu flights, carrying 98 business travelers on its inaugural service. The route is expected to support trade and investment, though it is currently operating three flights every two weeks. Currency Pressure: The kyat has weakened to around 4,600–4,700 per US dollar on the informal market, raising concerns about import costs and consumer prices. Foreign Engagement: US officials held a second round of talks with Myanmar’s military-backed government in Tokyo; wider discussions could include rare earths, though the agenda was not confirmed. Financing and Industry: Parliament approved Belarus loans with interest rates reaching 9.33%, as the regime also plans more than 2 trillion kyats in central-bank borrowing. Phase one of the Thanlyin refinery is designed to produce 150,000 tonnes of jet fuel a year. Regional Projects: India and Myanmar signed five cooperation agreements covering water and sanitation, roads, boiler operations, sports facilities and software.

US Engagement: Washington and Myanmar’s military-backed government held a second round of talks in Tokyo in a month. Earlier discussions focused on scam centres and a detained American businessman, with possible future talks on rare-earth minerals. Russia Ties: President Min Aung Hlaing’s Moscow visit includes a Myanmar-Russia Business Forum, with economic cooperation on the agenda. Energy Supply: The Thanlyin refinery has reopened, with Phase I designed to process 500,000 tonnes of crude a year; capacity is expected to rise to 3 million tonnes by 2028. Separately, shipping data showed an Iranian jet-fuel tanker reached Myanmar in September despite US sanctions. Trade and Finance: The kyat slid as the regime won approval for 2.1 trillion kyat in borrowing. Parliament also approved export credit from two Belarusian banks, which officials said could expose the country to foreign-exchange and interest-rate risks.