AGP Executive Report

Rare Earth Push: India and Myanmar moved to deepen rare earth cooperation, with an India–Myanmar mining forum in Mandalay discussing mineral exploration, investment and supply-chain diversification away from China. Mining Cooperation: Mandalay also hosted an India–Myanmar forum on mining and minerals, where Myanmar officials highlighted granted mining permits and said wider exploration could benefit from Indian expertise. Drug Crackdown: India’s Narcotics Control Bureau said it dismantled a transnational drug syndicate by arresting a Myanmar-based kingpin in Manipur, alleging methamphetamine and heroin trafficking routed via Myanmar’s Chin State. ASEAN Security Talk: At the 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, India’s EAM Jaishankar urged “zero tolerance” for terrorism and said attacks on merchant shipping and civilian infrastructure are unacceptable. Digital Crime Warning: A UN report warned Southeast Asia’s scam economy is expanding globally, using tech and AI, with losses estimated at up to $114.1bn in 2025. Human Trafficking Update: Nigeria’s NAPTIP said it rescued 156 trafficking victims since January 2026 and warned traffickers increasingly recruit via fake online job offers into cybercrime networks across Asia. Passport & Mobility: Myanmar ranked 91st in the Henley Passport Index, below Vietnam and Cambodia, with visa-free access to 65 destinations. Trade & Investment Event: Macao and Guangdong announced the 2026 Guangdong & Macao Branded Products Fair for 6–9 August, targeting regional trade networking and public shopping.

Human Trafficking Crackdown: Myanmar-linked cyber scam recruitment is in focus after NAPTIP said 156 trafficking victims were rescued in 2026 so far and warned fake overseas job offers are luring educated youths into online scam compounds across Southeast Asia. Drug Enforcement on India–Myanmar Route: India’s NCB dismantled a transnational syndicate by arresting Myanmar-based kingpin Nengzatuan @ Tuanpi in Manipur, alleging methamphetamine and heroin trafficking routed through Chin State into multiple Indian states. Cybercrime Losses Soar: A UNODC report estimates Asia-Pacific scam losses at $88.3bn–$114.1bn in 2025, citing AI-enabled fraud and interconnected criminal “service” networks that also rely on trafficking and forced labour. Regional Finance Crime Readiness: BIMSTEC wrapped an AML/CFT capacity-building programme in Meghalaya to help members prepare for mutual evaluations and tighten defenses against financial crimes and terror financing. Energy & Trade Risks in ASEAN: ASEAN foreign ministers voiced concern that the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions could raise fuel costs and disrupt maritime trade, with oil-sharing mechanisms under discussion. Myanmar Business & Infrastructure: Myanmar is producing smart meters to help consumers read and pay electricity bills independently, while Parliament calls for tighter scrutiny of NGO/INGO funding and financial transparency. Food Market Resilience: Yangon fish markets continue operating amid civil war pressures, labour shortages from overseas migration, and supply shifts from the Irrawaddy Delta.

ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers opened their Manila meeting calling for unity as Middle East tensions and South China Sea risks loom, with consultations also set on Myanmar’s Five-Point Consensus and the bloc’s next steps. South China Sea Code: Malaysia’s FM said the ASEAN-China South China Sea Code of Conduct is expected to be finalized at the November ASEAN Summit, with key paragraphs still needing agreement. Myanmar NGO Oversight: Myanmar’s Lower House Speaker urged tighter scrutiny of NGO/INGO funding sources, registration, activities and financial transparency, and called for possible new laws to improve oversight. Electricity Modernization: Myanmar is producing smart meters so users can read and pay bills independently, as officials push R&D, training and wider digital metering to cut losses. Cybercrime Warning: UNODC warned online fraud losses in East and Southeast Asia could reach $88.3b–$114.1b in 2025, citing Myanmar and Cambodia as major scam hubs and highlighting AI-enabled scams. Scam Trafficking Case: Two Karnataka men were rescued after being lured by fake Thailand jobs and forced into a Myanmar cyber scam centre, with authorities warning job seekers. Prison Health Crisis: A 72-year-old farmer died after a stroke in Bago prison, adding to a reported 148 political-prisoner deaths linked to medical neglect. Regional Business Link: Hyrax Oil signed deals to expand transformer fluids and technical services across Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. Mandalay Event: Mandalay will host a three-day Ayeyarwady–Yangtze Traditional Culture and Regional Development festival with B2B matching and MoUs aimed at investment and China-Myanmar ties.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Manila: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived for ASEAN foreign ministers’ talks and the East Asia Summit, saying he’s open to meeting China’s Wang Yi as South China Sea and Myanmar issues sit alongside Middle East tensions. Regional Security & Trade Risks: ASEAN ministers voiced “serious concern” over renewed US-Iran hostilities, warning of knock-on effects for energy, trade and food security, while the South China Sea clash threatens to overshadow the agenda. Myanmar Peace Implementation: ASEAN discussed benchmarks to measure progress under the Five-Point Consensus and explored a longer-term special envoy for Myanmar ahead of leaders’ review in November. BIMSTEC on Rohingya: BIMSTEC Secretary General Indra Mani Pandey said the Rohingya crisis is not on BIMSTEC’s agenda because it’s “political,” while member states finalized an AML/CFT action plan to curb illicit financial flows. Cybercrime & Scams: A UN report estimates Asia-Pacific scam losses at $88.3bn–$114.1bn in 2025, driven by AI, crypto and “corporate franchising” models, with Myanmar and Cambodia flagged as major hubs. Business Watch: Highway Holdings shares jumped after higher Q1 FY2027 revenue and a return to operating profitability, as it shifts from OEM dependence toward product-driven partnerships. Regional Business Expansion: Malaysia’s Hyrax Oil signed deals to expand transformer fluids and technical services across Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

ASEAN Diplomacy Watch: Foreign ministers meeting in Manila put “serious concern” over renewed US-Iran hostilities at the top, warning the Middle East crisis could hit energy supplies, trade and food security, while also keeping Myanmar’s stalled peace track and South China Sea tensions on the agenda. Cybercrime & Scams: A UNODC report says scam networks across East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand cost victims $88.3bn to $114.1bn in 2025, with Myanmar highlighted as a key hub as gangs industrialize fraud and increasingly use AI and crypto. Myanmar Scam Industry Shift: Separate reporting describes Myanmar’s scam operations “morphing” into jungle compounds, with trafficked workers and harsh conditions—an issue with direct business and reputational spillovers for the region. Regional Security Cooperation: BIMSTEC security chiefs in New Delhi adopted non-binding maritime guidelines for humanitarian disaster relief and law enforcement conduct, signaling tighter practical coordination in the Bay of Bengal. Cross-border Business Linkages: Malaysia’s Hyrax Oil signed deals to expand transformer fluids and technical services across Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, aiming at cleaner power infrastructure.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Manila: The 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting opened in the Philippines under “Navigating Our Future, Together,” with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and China’s Wang Yi among key attendees, while ministers also plan follow-ups on the Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar. Myanmar Finance: Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank disbursed over K16 billion in monsoon loans to nearly 10,000 Shan farmers across more than 60,000 acres, urging proper land documents and better repayment records. Regional Peace Talks: The NSPNC and PSLF/TNLA held Naypyidaw talks on ceasefire implementation and Ta’ang area development, with both sides signing a record of discussions. Rohingya Pressure via BIMSTEC: Bangladesh urged BIMSTEC members to intensify international pressure on Myanmar to enable safe, voluntary, sustainable Rohingya repatriation. Digital Tax Move: Thailand introduced online tax verification and digital payment for vehicle ownership transfers, using a Vehicle Automatic Valuation System and e-Tax clearance for name changes. Cybercrime Spillover: Thailand arrested a fugitive who used AI chatbots to hack police systems and try to delete warrants, highlighting the region’s fraud and cyber risks.

ASEAN Diplomacy: Malaysia’s foreign minister leads ASEAN talks in Manila, with West Asia tensions and follow-ups on Myanmar’s Five-Point Consensus on the agenda, alongside TAC progress and preparations for November summits. US-ASEAN Engagement: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet Philippine President Marcos during the Manila ministerial week, underscoring defense, maritime security and economic cooperation. Regional Security Framework: BIMSTEC security chiefs endorsed guiding principles for maritime law enforcement and adopted HADR guidelines at their New Delhi meeting, with Myanmar among participants. Myanmar Connectivity & Tourism (Regional): Thailand’s Ezy Airlines plans a Chiang Mai–Mae Hong Son route starting Oct 1, cutting travel time to about 40 minutes by air and boosting northern tourism-linked business opportunities. Myanmar Comms Under Pressure: Myanmar civil society groups urged SpaceX to keep Starlink service running, saying recent cutoffs are disrupting education for hundreds of thousands of students using NUG-run virtual schools. Domestic Myanmar (Business-Relevant Conflict): m.CDM reports intensified fighting and resistance gains in Kachin and Ye Township, with attacks and captures affecting stability and local economic activity.

Myanmar-ASEAN trade sentiment: A Global Times survey says Chinese public views on ASEAN are broadly positive, with strong support for deeper China-ASEAN economic and people-to-people cooperation. Regional maritime security: BIMSTEC security chiefs endorsed guiding principles for maritime law enforcement and adopted HADR guidelines at their New Delhi meeting, chaired by Ajit Doval and attended by Myanmar among others. Myanmar connectivity under pressure: A coalition of 255 Myanmar civil society groups urged SpaceX to keep Starlink running for civilians and pro-democracy groups, warning recent cutoffs are disrupting education for millions. Energy and industry: President Min Aung Hlaing inspected Thanlyin No.1 Oil Refinery, pushing Phase I to produce 500,000 tonnes of fuel annually, while the energy ministry is working on an optimal power generation mix and expanding solar via grid integration and solar home systems. Food and compliance: Yangon Region is set to expand agricultural and livestock breeding zones to stabilize affordable supply, and AML/CFT awareness training was launched in Yangon for accountancy professionals. Trade and exports: An Indian firm plans a soybean crushing and refining plant in Pathein Industrial Zone, and Myanmar’s 2025-26 fruit exports missed targets at 63.98% of the goal. Business event: MYEA Shan and MKN will hold talks on Shan State’s economy and opportunities on 25 July.

Oil & Energy: Thanlyin’s modular No 1 Oil Refinery is moving toward Phase I output of 500,000 tonnes of fuel annually, with President Min Aung Hlaing urging steady crude and pipeline supply to cut import costs and boost local jobs. Food Security & Agriculture: Yangon Region is pushing agricultural and livestock breeding zones to meet daily demand for meat, fish, eggs and vegetables at affordable prices, with inspections at Thilawa and other farms. Trade & Industry: An Indian firm plans a soybean crushing and refining plant in Pathein Industrial Zone, partnering with a Myanmar company to process black gram and supply fish feed via imported soybean meal. Compliance & Finance: Myanmar Accountancy Council and MICPA launched AML/CFT awareness and practical compliance training in Yangon, covering reporting duties and preventive measures for the accountancy sector. Exports: Myanmar’s 2025-26 fruit exports hit 63.98% of target, with growers urged to sort produce better and shift toward value-added processing. Regional Mobility: Thailand extended grace periods for migrant workers from Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam to keep industrial and service sectors running until Dec 11, 2027. Security & Crime: Malaysia detained 17 undocumented migrants, including Myanmar nationals, during an operation that also seized contraband alcohol and uncovered alleged prostitution facilitation via phone records. Geopolitics: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila, with Myanmar expected to feature amid ongoing regional tensions.

Energy Planning: Myanmar’s Electricity and Energy ministry is calculating an “optimal” power generation mix as hydropower faces climate pressure and global price volatility strains long-term energy security, with solar scaling via grid integration and solar home systems. Solar & Grid Expansion: A Nay Pyi Taw workshop focused on practical steps to speed solar rollouts and manage technical and operational challenges. Digital Payments for Tourism: Myanmar Tourism Federation and CB Bank agreed to push MMQR-based payments for membership fees and services, plus webinars and technical sessions to help tourism MSMEs adopt digital payments. Coastal Protection: Vice-President U Nyo Saw chaired the first National-Level Coastal Resources Management committee meeting, calling for integrated coastal management using green, blue and circular economy concepts and measures like vessel monitoring to curb illegal fishing. MSME Cotton Push: The MSME Development Fund will provide loans to expand cottonseed oil extraction and yarn-making, with applications routed through industrial supervision offices in Nay Pyi Taw, regions and states. Auto Expo (China-led): Myanmar International Auto Expo 2026 opened in Yangon with Chinese brands dominating, including BYD models promoted for taxi and personal use, while organisers urged stronger policy support for EV growth. Regional Security Talks: Myanmar’s National Security Adviser U Tin Aung San attended the 5th BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs’ meeting in India, discussing counterterrorism, transnational crime, maritime and cyber security, and border-related cooperation. Aung San Statues: AFP reports independence-hero Aung San statues are being quietly removed across Myanmar, with analysts linking the changes to political legacy battles. Cybercrime Warning: A report highlights “digital arrest” scams targeting Indians, describing cross-border scam networks that operate beyond domestic enforcement reach.

Myanmar Auto Expo: Chinese brands dominated the Myanmar International Auto Expo 2026 in Yangon, with EVs and supply-chain firms leading the three-day show; EV Power Co. highlighted BYD models and urged stronger government policy support to grow Myanmar’s EV market. Tourism Payments: Myanmar Tourism Federation and CB Bank agreed to expand digital payments for tourism services using the MMQR system, plus webinars and technical sessions for faster, easier membership and checkpoint processes. Coastal Management: Vice-President U Nyo Saw chaired the first national committee meeting on Integrated Coastal Management, pushing green/blue/circular economy goals, vessel monitoring, and tighter controls to curb illegal fishing. MSME Cotton Push: The MSME Development Fund will provide loans to develop Myanmar’s cotton value chain, including cottonseed oil extraction and yarn-making machines, with applications routed through industrial supervision offices. Parliament Update: Pyithu Hluttaw heard progress on MSME and infrastructure, including a K170bn MSME Development Fund with K150bn already disbursed as loans since 2024. Regional Security: Myanmar’s National Security Adviser U Tin Aung San met Indian NSA Ajit Doval and others at the BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs’ meeting in New Delhi, focusing on counterterrorism, cyber, maritime security, and border issues. Palm Oil Prices: Yangon wholesale palm oil reference prices eased slightly to K7,220 per viss for the week ending 23 July, while authorities warned against overcharging and manipulation. Humanitarian Risk: Reports say two Rohingya boats carrying about 530 people vanished off Myanmar’s coast, with fears of mass casualties. Scam Industry Watch: A new report details cross-border “pig butchering” romance and crypto fraud networks operating in the region, including Myanmar-linked scam compounds. Aung San Statues: AFP reports Aung San independence statues are disappearing across Myanmar, with analysts linking removals to contested legacy and public symbolism.

Myanmar-ASEAN/Regional Security: BIMSTEC national security chiefs in New Delhi, chaired by NSA Ajit Doval, endorsed guiding principles to streamline maritime law enforcement and disaster relief, and urged practical cooperation against terrorism, cyber threats and transnational organised crime. Myanmar Trade & Investment: Uzbekistan and Myanmar are preparing a joint business forum in August, with about 50 Myanmar company representatives expected, covering agriculture, food processing, textiles, pharma, chemicals, tourism and more. Agriculture & Exports: Myanmar is tapping cotton as a strategic cash crop to lift farmers’ livelihoods and generate foreign exchange, with production and cultivated area reported as already expanding. Energy/Climate Finance: A UN carbon market shift is locking out many “CDM” projects after China and India declined to back new Article 6.4 transitions, raising scrutiny over climate-credit claims including Myanmar cookstove schemes. Humanitarian & Cross-border Risks: Two boats carrying about 530 Rohingya asylum seekers vanished after leaving Rakhine State on June 29, with fears of mass deaths as communications were severed. Cybercrime Crackdown Spillover: Authorities in Pakistan warned families about syndicates recruiting people to Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia for forced cyber fraud operations. Business Deal Watch: Uber plans to acquire Germany’s Delivery Hero for $14.8bn, expanding food delivery reach across multiple countries including Myanmar via Delivery Hero’s foodpanda footprint.

BIMSTEC Security: National Security Adviser Ajit Doval chaired the 5th BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs’ meeting in New Delhi, pushing tighter regional cooperation against terrorism, cyber threats, organised crime and maritime risks, and endorsing maritime law-enforcement and humanitarian disaster-relief guidelines. ASEAN Myanmar Diplomacy: The Philippines said ASEAN’s special envoy on Myanmar will keep engaging all stakeholders, including ethnic armed groups and the NUG, ahead of next week’s ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Manila. Myanmar Agriculture & Trade: Myanmar Fertilizer, Seed and Pesticide Entrepreneurs Association (MFSPEA) arranged regional procurement of urea and compound fertilizer for monsoon crops and invited importers for Q3 distribution. Connectivity & Business Support: MPT expanded mobile coverage with 27 new 4G LTE base stations and upgraded nine sites to improve access for rural areas, farmers, online learning and SMEs. Energy Market Watch: Myanmar Edible Oil Dealers’ Association released Yangon palm-oil distribution updates by township, signaling efforts to stabilize supply and prices. Regional Tech/AI: Myanmar joined ASEAN partners in signing the founding agreement for WAICO, a new intergovernmental AI cooperation body launched in Shanghai.

ASEAN Outreach to Myanmar: The Philippines says ASEAN’s special envoy on Myanmar will keep engaging all stakeholders, including armed groups and the National Unity Government, ahead of next week’s ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Manila. Regional Security for Trade: India’s NSA Ajit Doval chaired the 5th BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs’ meeting in New Delhi, urging decisive cooperation on counter-terrorism, cyber and maritime security, disaster management, and supply-chain-linked economic stress; Myanmar’s minister in the President’s Office attended. Maritime Rules for the Bay of Bengal: BIMSTEC members adopted a maritime security cooperation framework, including humanitarian assistance and disaster relief guidelines and coordination principles for law enforcement at sea. FATF Watchlist Update: FATF removed Algeria and Namibia from its monitored list and added Bosnia and Iraq, while Myanmar’s high-risk status stayed unchanged, with calls for enhanced due diligence. Rohingya Crisis at Sea: UN agencies report more than 500 people feared dead after two refugee boats sank off Myanmar’s coast, underscoring the ongoing humanitarian and migration pressures. Cross-border Delivery Deal: Uber confirmed its US$14.8bn takeover of Delivery Hero, extending Foodpanda operations across Myanmar and other markets, with some overlapping businesses to be sold to SSW Partners.

Regional Security: India’s NSA Ajit Doval chaired the 5th BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs’ meeting in New Delhi, pushing closer counterterrorism, cybersecurity and maritime cooperation among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Financial Oversight: FATF updated its high-risk and monitored jurisdictions list, removing Algeria and Namibia and adding Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iraq; Myanmar’s status on the highest-risk list stayed unchanged. Cross-border Peace Talks: Thailand’s foreign minister said Myanmar’s military and some armed groups are ready for dialogue, with talks “for talks” on how and where to hold an inclusive political process. Myanmar-Thai Diplomacy: Reports say Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing will visit Thailand in August as Bangkok seeks to normalize relations. Energy Transition: Myanmar’s Ministry of Electricity and Energy held a workshop to accelerate solar adoption for longer-term power security. Parliament & Infrastructure: Pyithu Hluttaw MPs discussed road and bridge upgrades and a proposal for a National Population and Development Commission. Agribusiness & Trade: No 3 Heavy Industries Enterprise invited tenders for cotton procurement for 2026-2027, while MFVP and MILS explored collaboration for Myanmar Agri-Food Week 2026. Rural Finance: Pobbathiri disbursed K51.5m under the Mya Sein Yaung village revolving fund for farming, livestock and small businesses. Gold Licensing: Yangon gold traders must renew licences six months ahead via the MyanGold online system. Humanitarian Crisis: UN agencies fear more than 500 Rohingya may have died after two boats capsized off Myanmar’s coast.

Myanmar Power Enforcement: Myanmar’s Ministry of Electricity and Energy says it found 340 electricity theft cases during a 100-day campaign, involving over 7.7 million units of illegal use, with K6.745 billion recovered via fines and compensation. ASEAN Diplomacy: Thailand says Myanmar’s leader Min Aung Hlaing is expected to visit in August, aiming to bring Myanmar “back into the fold” after years of strained ties. Cross-border Security Talk: India will host BIMSTEC security chiefs on July 16, with Myanmar among participants, focusing on counter-terrorism, maritime security, cybercrime and transnational organized crime. Regional Cybersecurity: Cambodia hosted a Lancang-Mekong cybersecurity forum with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam to strengthen policy, infrastructure protection and cloud data security. Business Impact Watch: Highway Holdings reported weaker fiscal 2026 results, blaming reduced orders from major customers tied to Myanmar political instability and tariff effects. Labour Mobility: Thailand approved extending work permits for about 770,000 migrant workers from Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam to keep manufacturing and services staffing stable. Education Freedom Data: A global index flags Myanmar among the steepest declines in academic freedom from 2015 to 2025.