AGP Executive Report

Foreign Currency Controls: Myanmar barred more than 300 migrant workers from returning to overseas jobs after they failed to prove tax payments and official remittances, as the military-backed government seeks to capture more foreign currency. Many migrants instead use hundi networks, which offer better exchange rates and let families bypass military-controlled banks; official remittances reached $5.6 billion last year. Sanctions and Business: The U.S. removed Shwe Byain Phyu family member Theint Win Htet from its sanctions list. Justice For Myanmar says she is the fifth junta-linked figure delisted under the Trump administration, raising concerns about Washington’s shift toward engagement. Manufacturing: Garment factories are closing as low wages and dwindling job opportunities squeeze an industry that provides vital employment. Agriculture: Myanmar’s Paw San rice won the World’s Best Rice award for the second time, a boost to the country’s export profile.

Solar Costs: Solar panel prices in Myanmar have nearly doubled as power cuts and fears of a severe El Niño fuel panic buying. A popular Jinko panel has climbed from about K550,000 in August to nearly K900,000, while battery prices have also surged. Gold Trading: The Commerce Ministry will not issue online sales registrations for gold or gold products, citing concerns about market volatility; gemstone-only sales may still qualify under conditions. Regional Business: Myanmar and Malaysia discussed investment and economic cooperation during a business dialogue held alongside President U Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to Kuala Lumpur. Rice Exports: Myanmar’s Paw San rice won the World’s Best Rice Award for a second time, raising the profile of a key export. Jobs and Poverty: Garment factory closures and scarce job opportunities add pressure on households, as a UN report says more than 37 million people in Myanmar are poor or at risk of poverty.

Gold Trade: Myanmar’s Commerce Ministry will stop issuing online sales certificates for gold, jewellery and other gold products, citing risks to price stability; gemstone sales may still qualify under separate conditions. Fuel Costs: Myanmar recorded the world’s steepest petrol price increase from February to August, at 50.7%, according to UNCTAD, adding pressure on household budgets and businesses. Jobs: Garment factory closures are shrinking employment, with one Chinese-owned factory shutdown expected to leave more than 3,000 workers jobless; power shortages, import delays and exchange-rate gaps are among the sector’s strains. Poverty: UNDP estimates 17.9 million people are living in multidimensional poverty and another 19.5 million are at risk. Regional Energy: India and Singapore are exploring a 2,000-megawatt power link routed through Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia, but financing, technical feasibility and cross-border agreements remain unresolved. Food Security: Authorities are preparing for severe El Niño heat and drought, with instructions to conserve water and secure food supplies.

Fuel Costs: Myanmar recorded the world’s steepest petrol-price rise, up 50.7% from February to August, as UNCTAD warned that higher energy costs are squeezing household spending across developing economies. Rice Exports: Myanmar’s Pawsan rice won the 2026 World Best Rice Award in Manila; the Myanmar Rice Federation said exporters discussed sales opportunities with buyers from the Philippines, Malaysia and Africa. Poverty: More than 37 million people in Myanmar are poor or at risk of multidimensional poverty, a UNDP report found, citing overlapping deprivations in health, education and living standards. Sanctions: The US removed daughter of military-linked businessman Thein Win Zaw from its sanctions list after she challenged the designation in court, amid reports Washington has reopened talks with Myanmar’s government. Gold Trading: Authorities have prohibited registration for online trading in gold and gold items, shutting down a fast-growing market.

Sanctions and US Ties: Washington removed Theint Win Htet, daughter of a Myanmar businessman whose companies were sanctioned over alleged fuel supplies to the military, from its sanctions list after she challenged the designation. The move comes amid reports of renewed US talks with Myanmar’s government; whether the two are connected is unclear. Rice Exports: Myanmar’s Pawsan rice won the World Best Rice Award for a second time. At the Manila conference, exporters discussed sales to the Philippines, Malaysia and African markets as the federation pursues a 3-million-ton export target. Fuel Costs: UNCTAD says Myanmar recorded the world’s steepest petrol-price rise from February to August 2026, at 50.7%, adding pressure on households and businesses. Business Pressures: Garment factories face a labour crunch as workers shun low wages, while the regime has barred online gold trading—two further strains on businesses and livelihoods.

Rice Exports: Myanmar’s Pawsan rice won the World’s Best Rice Award for a second time. The Rice Federation is targeting 3 million tonnes of exports in 2026–27 and pursuing new sales in the Philippines, Malaysia and Africa. Garment Industry: Around 500 factories face labour shortages, with fewer than 800,000 workers in the sector. Low wages and migration are adding to pressure on this major export industry. Household Finances: A UN report says more than two-thirds of Myanmar’s population is poor or at risk of poverty, underscoring the strain on families and the wider economy. Regional Energy Links: India and Singapore are exploring a 2,000-megawatt power corridor through Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia, though Singapore’s broader electricity-import plans face delays. Investment Ties: Myanmar and Malaysia have discussed boosting investment and economic cooperation during a business dialogue, as both sides seek closer commercial links.

Garment Industry: Around 500 Myanmar factories face labour shortages, with CMP producers operating below the workforce they need. Migration, stagnant wages and power and cash constraints are adding pressure to a key export sector. Regional Energy: India and Singapore are exploring a 2,000 MW power corridor through Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia. The proposed link could support electricity trade and renewable energy, but options still need assessment. Investment and Trade: China has become Myanmar’s top foreign investor and trading partner. It accounted for 42.6% of approved FDI in the fiscal year to March, even as total approvals fell 31.5%; China-Myanmar trade rose to 35% of the country’s total. Gold Market: The Commerce Ministry has stopped issuing and renewing online gold and jewellery sales licences, threatening unlicensed traders with prosecution. The move targets a fast-growing market but tightens controls on sellers.

Economic Strain: More than 37 million people in Myanmar—68% of the population—are living in poverty or at risk, a UNDP report says, as conflict and gaps in basic services erode livelihoods. Malaysia Ties: Min Aung Hlaing’s visit brought pledges to strengthen bilateral cooperation, with investment among the priorities; Malaysia says Myanmar has agreed to accept the return of more than 10,000 nationals. Energy Link: India and Singapore are considering a 2,000-megawatt power connection, including a proposed 3,000-kilometre route through Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia—an option that could deepen the country’s role in regional electricity trade. US Engagement: Washington has opened direct talks with Myanmar’s military government, initially focused on scam centres, with broader engagement over rare-earth resources also possible. The outreach marks a shift from years of isolation.

Malaysia–Myanmar Business: During Min Aung Hlaing’s visit, the two sides pledged stronger trade and investment ties across agriculture, manufacturing, energy and other sectors; he also urged Malaysian investors to explore Myanmar’s special economic zones. Financial Links: Russia’s Sberbank has launched direct business settlements with Myanmar, while a Myanmar delegation attended trade and economic cooperation talks in Russia. US Engagement: Washington has opened direct talks with Myanmar’s military government, initially focused on scam centres but potentially extending to rare-earth minerals. Economic Strain: A UNDP report says 68% of Myanmar’s population—more than 37 million people—is poor or at risk of poverty. Rolling blackouts and mass layoffs in Yangon’s garment sector add to pressure on businesses and households.

Cross-Border Payments: Sberbank and Myanmar’s Ministry of Planning and Finance agreed on direct business settlements, using the bank’s Indian branch to connect firms with Russia, India and Belarus. The system is expected to speed payments and cut reliance on intermediaries, with trade in energy, farm goods, fertilizers and machinery among its uses. Trade Finance: Myanmar’s parliament is seeking approval for Belarus-backed export loans to buy machinery, technology and services. Financing runs for up to five years, with interest rates ranging from 2.25% to 9.33%, plus insurance premiums. Construction: Work on Yangon’s Yoma Central project is set to resume in phases under a new agreement between FMI and Yoma Strategic. Jobs: Garment-sector layoffs are deepening as foreign brands withdraw amid Myanmar’s economic crisis.

Malaysia Business Links: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Malaysia for talks that include a business dialogue and stronger investment cooperation. The visit comes as Malaysia faces criticism over returning Myanmar nationals. Productivity: A new Asian Productivity Organization report includes Myanmar in its productivity accounts; average hourly labour-productivity growth across member economies slowed to 2.5% in 2019–24, from 2.9% in 2015–19. Yangon Retail: Bogyoke Aung San Market’s centenary festival runs through Oct. 11, with more than 100 stalls showcasing local products. The landmark has over 1,800 shops. Business Pressures: Yangon’s garment sector is facing mass layoffs as foreign brands pull out, while inflation and regime policies are driving property prices higher. Construction: FMI and Yoma Strategic say work on Yangon’s The Central condo will resume in phases.

Malaysia-Myanmar Repatriations: Malaysia says about 10,000 Myanmar nationals have been sent back since January, with talks in Kuala Lumpur ahead of Min Aung Hlaing’s Oct 7 visit; rights groups warn Rohingya and other returnees may face abuse. Rohingya Movement Curbs in Rakhine: The Arakan Army tightened travel rules in Kyauktaw, requiring multiple permission letters and fees for routine journeys, adding pressure on already strained households. Myanmar Economy Admission: Min Aung Hlaing conceded growth has stalled, blaming instability, sanctions, and conflict damage to roads and bridges. Property/Construction Update (Yangon): The Central Condominium project in Yangon is set for phased restart after BSI inspections, after years of delays and buyer frustration. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: TNLA plans a two-lane bridge at the Namhkam–Nongdao crossing to speed cargo and travel with China. Energy/Industry: FMI and Yoma Strategic agreed to resume Yoma Central construction in phases, with FMI increasing its stake to 20%. Environment & Air Quality: Thailand, Laos and Myanmar launched a joint haze action plan to cut fire hotspots and improve monitoring through 2030. Business Tech (Global): Veyond Metaverse won Fast Company’s 2026 Next Big Things in Tech for XR telemedicine, relevant to remote healthcare models.

Malaysia-Myanmar Migration Talks: Malaysia says about 10,000 Myanmar nationals have been sent back since January, as Min Aung Hlaing prepares a two-day visit to Kuala Lumpur and leaders plan to discuss “voluntary, dignified and safe” repatriation amid UN and rights concerns. ASEAN Normalisation Push: Malaysia also confirmed it will raise bilateral issues with the Myanmar president, as Naypyidaw reports nearly 10,000 repatriations this year. Rohingya Repatriation Pressure: Bangladesh’s foreign minister warns the Rohingya crisis is now tied to security and irregular migration, calling for stronger international efforts for early, safe returns. Cross-border Security Cooperation: Nepal’s home minister Sudhan Gurung is set to attend the first BIMSTEC home ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, with Myanmar among member states. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: TNLA-linked plans to build a two-lane bridge at the Namhkam–Nongdao border crossing aim to speed cargo trade with China. Myanmar Business Signals: FMI and Yoma Strategic say construction on Yangon’s Yoma Central will resume in phases after share transfers and loan acquisitions. Crime & Enforcement: China-linked telecom fraud in northern Myanmar is highlighted in a new documentary, while India’s ED reports a Rs 1,000-crore areca nut smuggling and money-laundering network tied to the India-Myanmar border. Environment & Health: Thailand, Laos and Myanmar launch a joint plan to cut transboundary haze and improve air-quality monitoring, with impacts on public health and the economy.

Myanmar Property Boom: Myanmar’s residential market is surging, with prices reportedly jumping about fourfold since 2021 as authorities move to rein in values and households face higher living costs. Power & Climate Risk: The regime has started rolling blackouts from Oct 5, blaming El Niño-driven heat and rising demand; outages could last months as hydropower reservoir levels fall. Cross-Border Trade: A historic 540-ton methanol shipment left Assam’s Bogibeel for Dhaka, reviving the Brahmaputra freight corridor and pointing to more regular river trade. Regional Security & Mobility: Home Minister Sudan Gurung is set to visit India for a BIMSTEC home ministers meeting, aiming to coordinate cross-border security. Anti-Crime Crackdown: India’s ED says it uncovered a multi-layer areca nut smuggling and money-laundering network tied to the Indo-Myanmar border, with bank credits exceeding Rs 1,000 crore. Drug Enforcement: INTERPOL-led action seized 650 tonnes of synthetic drugs and precursors across Southeast Asia, with ketamine seizures rising sharply. Labor & Diplomacy Pressure: Myanmar migrant worker groups in Malaysia are calling for a work stoppage strike ahead of Min Aung Hlaing’s Oct 7 talks, warning engagement could harm Malaysia’s international standing.

Myanmar Power Crunch: Myanmar warned of scheduled rotational blackouts starting Oct 5 as El Niño-driven heat strains the grid and hydropower reservoir levels fall, with outages potentially lasting months. Malaysia-Myanmar Returns: Myanmar received 1,476 nationals repatriated from Malaysia on two navy vessels, as UNHCR and rights groups question safety and voluntariness amid a wider plan to send back thousands. Labor Pressure: Myanmar migrant workers in Malaysia called for a nationwide work stoppage strike ahead of Min Aung Hlaing’s Oct 7 Kuala Lumpur visit, citing reputational and political concerns. Trade & Logistics: Maersk announced a peak-season surcharge on dry-container shipments from Southeast Asia to Oceania from Nov 1, 2026, affecting Myanmar among other ASEAN markets. Regional Industry Push: A Myanmar delegation attended Belarus’s INNOPROM in Minsk to discuss trade, industrial cooperation, and MSME development. Local Development: In PutaO, Kachin officials inspected aquaculture and noodle production projects supported by state funds, linking upgrades to local market access and food security.

Repatriation Under Fire: Nearly 1,500 Myanmar migrants and refugees returned from Malaysia to Yangon aboard Myanmar Navy ships and a hospital ship, as Malaysia says the returns were voluntary but the UN and rights groups warn safety cannot be guaranteed and that detainees may have had little choice. Rohingya Rights Pressure: Bangladesh’s home minister urged the international community and UN agencies to keep funding and logistics high for safe, dignified Rohingya repatriation, citing worsening border pressures from fighting inside Myanmar. Cross-Border Crime Crackdown: The Philippines arrested 244 foreign workers, mostly Chinese, in raids tied to illegal offshore gaming operators accused of human trafficking, fraud and other crimes—highlighting the region’s ongoing scam-fraud risks. Myanmar-Linked Environmental Risk: A report says Thai farmland and rivers have been poisoned by chemicals linked to Myanmar mining, with toxins carried by transboundary rivers and minerals imported via Thai firms. Business & Finance: MOB Bank signed an MoU with Kayin State CCI to support MSMEs with financial and technical assistance, while UMFCCI urged a more business-friendly environment to help local firms break into modern trade networks. Reconstruction Loans: Central Bank says K8.11bn in loans has been disbursed for Mandalay earthquake reconstruction, including support for MSMEs and businesses.