AGP Executive Report

Power Supply: Myanmar’s electricity shortfall is expected to persist through 2027: the regime says generation will cover only 70% of forecast demand, with 24-hour supply potentially 20 years away. Export Finance: Exporters can now retain earnings for 45 days before repatriation, up from 30, giving businesses more time to manage foreign currency. Critical Minerals: The junta is courting US investment in rare earths, a sector dominated by China, as Washington weighs a larger role in Myanmar’s mineral industry. Trade Bottlenecks: Tighter controls on rice and other essential shipments along the Taungoo–Leiktho route are disrupting trade and pushing up local prices. Regional Outlook: Trade, energy security and Myanmar’s crisis are set to feature at the Manila ASEAN summit, where Myanmar will be represented by a senior official rather than its junta leader.

Power Crunch: Myanmar’s regime says generation will cover only 70% of forecast summer demand, keeping rotating blackouts in place through 2027. The shortfall threatens households and businesses already hit by unreliable electricity. Rare Earths: The military government is urging Washington to accelerate investment in the sector, a major source of heavy rare earths now largely shipped to China. Civil war, divided territorial control and China’s role in processing remain major obstacles to any US supply chain. Export Rules: Exporters can retain earnings for 45 days, up from 30, giving businesses more time to manage foreign-currency proceeds. Migrant Banking: Myanmar nationals made up 30.3% of new foreign-resident accounts at South Korea’s KakaoBank, which attracted 20,000 customers in its first month with app-based accounts and remittances.

Hospitality: Dusit International has taken over management of two Yangon hotels: the historic Strand, opened in 1901, and the contemporary ASAI Yangon Sule. Trade and Payments: Myanmar has extended the period exporters can retain earnings from 30 to 45 days. Thailand’s foreign minister is also due to raise border trade disruptions, including licensing hurdles on the Mae Sot–Myawaddy route. Critical Minerals: Myanmar is pitching rare-earth investment to the United States, seeking to diversify a sector dominated by China. Energy: Middle East tensions have pushed up fuel prices and increased the value of Magway’s small-scale oil industry, where prospectors face risks from ongoing fighting. Regional Outlook: The Nov. 15–17 ASEAN summit in Manila will discuss economic integration and include meetings with business representatives; Myanmar will be represented by a Foreign Ministry official.

Fuel Pressures: Myanmar’s small-scale oil producers in Magway are caught in conflict as rising fuel prices make local crude more valuable. The country imports about 90% of its fuel oil, leaving it exposed to supply shocks. Energy Investment: The government is inviting domestic businesses to invest in 71 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks, including 39 onshore and 32 offshore. Rare Earths: Myanmar is urging the US to invest in its rare-earth sector, but key mining areas are outside military control and China dominates processing. Export Rules: Exporters can now retain earnings for 45 days, up from 30, easing pressure on businesses to convert or repatriate funds quickly. MSME Markets: Myanmar’s first MSME Products Expo in Thailand is planned for February 2027 to help local firms reach buyers and build trade partnerships.

Export Finance: Myanmar’s central bank extended exporters’ window to retain usable foreign-currency earnings from 30 to 45 days, giving businesses more time to arrange import licences and overseas payments. Critical Minerals: The military government is urging Washington to invest in rare earths, seeking to reduce China’s dominance of a sector that supplies materials for electric vehicles and wind turbines. Migrant Remittances: Myanmar embassies are tightening checks on workers’ tax and remittance payments, enforcing a 25% remittance rule as many migrants resist official channels. Regional Investment: The ADB estimates Southeast Asia needs $7.1 trillion for infrastructure through 2040, with a financing gap that will require more private-sector investment.

Export Finance: The Central Bank has extended exporters’ foreign-currency retention period from 30 to 45 days, giving businesses more time to arrange import licences and overseas payments. Critical Minerals: Myanmar’s military government is urging the US to invest in rare-earth mines largely tied to China’s supply chain. Washington says it wants a better operating environment for US firms and progress toward peace. Migrant Remittances: Myanmar embassies are requiring overseas workers to show proof of tax payments and remitting 25% of their earnings through official channels when applying to renew job passports, prompting backlash from migrants who rely on alternative services. Regional Investment: Southeast Asia needs an estimated $7.1 trillion for infrastructure through 2040, an ADB report says, with current public investment covering less than half the projected cost.

Export Push: Myanmar businesses at Shanghai’s 9th China International Import Expo are seeking Chinese and global buyers, while learning about packaging, manufacturing standards and ways to add value to local products. Debt and Currency: Foreign debt fell to $10.8 billion in 2025 from $13.5 billion in 2021, but analysts warn that repayments amid an aid freeze are intensifying foreign-currency shortages and pressure on the kyat. Agriculture: Tanintharyi Region earned $52.193 million from five aquaculture products in FY2025-26. Trade Costs: A kyat slump is raising import costs and disrupting Thai border trade; the Central Bank has also approved an advance-payment system for importers. Corporate Exit: Unilever plans to sell its Myanmar joint-venture stake, with the deal expected to close in 2027.

Aquaculture Exports: Tanintharyi Region earned US$52.2 million from five farmed seafood products in FY2025-26, with shrimp generating US$48 million. Industry leaders say processing more products locally and expanding Myeik Airport could lift export earnings. Foreign Exchange: The Central Bank urged businesses to follow currency rules and said advance-payment procedures are being coordinated to ease importers’ payments. Border Trade: Thai authorities reopened several crossings along the Moei River on Nov. 6 after a week-long closure, but access remains restricted in conflict-affected areas. Business Outlook: Unilever plans to sell its Myanmar joint-venture stake, with the deal expected to close in 2027. Air Links: Myanmar and Oman signed an air transport agreement that could support trade, tourism and investment.

Aquaculture Exports: Taninthayi Region earned US$52.193 million from 12,267 tonnes of aquaculture products in FY2025-26, with shrimp accounting for US$48 million. Industry representatives say processing more products locally and expanding air exports could boost foreign-currency earnings. Foreign Exchange: Central Bank Governor Khin Naing Oo urged businesses and banks to follow currency rules and said advance-payment procedures for importers should be implemented smoothly. Border Trade: Thailand reopened several crossings near Myawady after a week-long closure, easing travel and trade, though fighting continues to restrict access to some routes. Markets and Connectivity: Yangon Stock Exchange trading value rose to K1.57 billion in October, up K73.5 million from September. Myanmar and Oman also signed an air-services agreement intended to support trade, tourism and investment.

Border Trade: Thailand reopened several crossings along the Moei River on Nov. 6 after a week-long closure linked to fighting near Myawady, easing travel and trade. Access remains restricted at several points, leaving some communities dependent on aid. Foreign Exchange: The Central Bank urged businesses to follow currency rules and backed staged payments for imports: 30% when a licence is issued, 40% on the bill of lading and 30% when import documents are filed. Markets: Yangon Stock Exchange trading topped K1.57 billion in October, up more than K73.5 million from September, with 245,996 shares traded. Investment and Trade: Myanmar attracted US$433 million in foreign investment in the first half of fiscal 2026–27, while a new air services agreement with Oman is intended to support trade, tourism and investment.

Markets: Yangon Stock Exchange turnover rose to K1.57 billion in October, up K73.5 million from September, with 245,996 shares traded. Import Finance: The Central Bank approved staged payments for importers—30% at licence approval, 40% on the bill of lading and 30% at import declaration—to ease supplier payments and support essential imports. Investment: Myanmar attracted US$433 million in FDI in the first half of FY2026-27. Thailand says it is ready to support businesses in Thilawa and pursue new investment, while Unilever plans to sell its Myanmar joint-venture stake in a deal expected to close in 2027. Trade Links: Myanmar and Oman signed an air transport agreement enabling designated airlines to serve both countries and supporting trade, tourism and investment. Foreign Exchange: The CBM warned against unlicensed currency trading, noting it has supplied importers with foreign currency through authorized channels. Industry: A textile and machinery expo in Yangon on Dec. 4–6 will showcase local products and garment equipment, with more than 100 exhibitors expected.

Import Finance: The Central Bank has introduced staged payments for licensed imports—30% when a licence is issued, 40% on presentation of the bill of lading and 30% when import declarations are filed. It says the system should ease cash-flow pressure and speed purchases of essential goods; it also warned that unlicensed foreign-currency trading will face legal action. Manufacturing & Investment: Myanmar’s Textile and Machinery Expo will run in Yangon on December 4–6, bringing together more than 100 exhibitors, including local SMEs and machinery suppliers. Thailand says it is ready to support more investment in Thilawa, where over 20 Thai businesses already operate. Myanmar attracted US$433 million in FDI in the first half of fiscal 2026–27. Corporate Exit: Unilever plans to sell its Myanmar joint-venture stake to its local partner’s subsidiary, with completion expected in 2027, subject to approvals.

Currency & Remittances: The Central Bank has warned of legal action against unlicensed foreign-exchange trading. Myanmar workers in South Korea also face penalties for using illegal hundi services, while the Labour Department says workers in its G-to-G programme must remit at least 25% of their wages through official channels or risk a three-year ban on overseas work. Corporate Exit: Unilever plans to sell its Myanmar joint-venture stake to partner EAC’s subsidiary, with the deal expected to close in 2027, subject to approvals. Investment: Thailand says it is ready to support its more than 20 businesses in Thilawa and pursue new investment in Myanmar. Garment Industry: A textile and machinery fair at Yangon Convention Centre on December 4–6 will feature more than 100 exhibitors and promote local SME products. Regional Trade: A proposed Bangladesh–Myanmar–China road link could cut truck journeys from Chattogram to China to 24 hours, according to Bangladesh’s commerce minister.

Corporate Exit: Unilever confirmed it will sell its Myanmar joint-venture stake to partner EAC subsidiary Centig Holding, with the deal expected to close in 2027; operations will continue as usual until then. Migrant Remittances: More than 2 million Myanmar workers in Thailand have backed a call for the NUG to issue ID cards, rejecting regime-run Certificate of Identity centers amid disputes over required remittances and taxes. Trade & Currency: The kyat’s slide is raising import costs and disrupting Thai border trade, while China has eased restrictions at selected crossings in Kachin and Shan. Investment: Myanmar attracted $433 million in foreign investment in the first half of FY2026-27, while Beijing urged the regime to speed up investment projects. Financial Risks: Myanmar remains on the FATF high-risk list; the watchdog also warned that scam networks are shifting to smaller, mobile operations as enforcement pressure mounts. Manufacturing: The Myanmar International Textile and Machinery Fair is set for Yangon on Dec. 4–6, with more than 100 exhibitors, including local SMEs. Fuel Costs: UNCTAD reported gasoline prices in Myanmar rose 51% between February and August amid the global fuel shock.

Textile Investment: Myanmar’s International Textile and Machinery Fair will run in Yangon from Dec. 4–6, with more than 100 exhibitors showcasing garments, equipment and local SME products. Border Trade: China has eased restrictions at selected crossings in Kachin and northern Shan, reopening flows of machinery, pharmaceuticals and electronics; some fuel imports remain restricted. Foreign Investment: Unilever has agreed to sell its stake in its Myanmar joint venture to an affiliate of its local partner, with the deal expected to close in 2027. Myanmar attracted $433 million in foreign investment in the first half of fiscal 2026–27. Trade Costs: A falling kyat is raising import costs and disrupting Thai-border trade. Separately, UNCTAD reports Myanmar gasoline prices rose about 51% between February and August amid the global fuel shock.

Corporate Retreat: Unilever has agreed to sell its stake in Myanmar joint venture UEMCL to its local partner’s affiliate, with the deal expected to close in 2027 subject to approvals. Financial terms were not disclosed. China Projects: Beijing urged Myanmar to speed up China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects, while calling for closer cooperation on energy, resources and security. Border Trade: The kyat’s slide—to more than 4,900 per US dollar and around 680 baht per 100,000 kyat—has led some Thai-border traders and money changers to suspend deals, raising import-cost and inflation concerns. Financial Watchlist: Japan denied seeking Myanmar’s removal from the FATF blacklist; the country remains listed, keeping enhanced scrutiny on its financial transactions. Investment: Myanmar attracted US$433 million in foreign direct investment in the first half of fiscal 2026-27.