AGP Executive Report

Energy and Costs: POSCO International beat third-quarter profit estimates, though earnings from its Myanmar gas field declined; stronger Australian gas, power generation and Indonesian palm oil offset the weakness. Myanmar’s gasoline prices rose 51% from February to August amid the oil shock, adding pressure to households and businesses. Trade and Connectivity: China has eased restrictions on some goods entering armed-group-held border areas, allowing fuel, medicines and construction materials through the Kyin San Kyawt crossing. Myanmar and Oman also signed an air services agreement covering passenger and cargo flights and code-sharing. Investment and Resources: A US strategy document links peace diplomacy in Myanmar with potential access to rare-earth deposits now largely exported to China. Separately, Myanmar, Thailand and Russia discussed routing Russian LNG through a proposed Dawei terminal and existing pipelines. Finance and Technology: Myanmar remains on the FATF money-laundering blacklist. Its delegation said it had completed 13 of 15 action-plan measures; FATF called for the remaining steps and stronger action against online scams and illicit financial flows. 5G services have begun trial use in Naypyitaw, Yangon and Mandalay.

Aviation Links: Myanmar and Oman signed a 26-article air services agreement allowing designated airlines to operate passenger and cargo flights and pursue code-sharing, opening scope for stronger connectivity and commercial ties. Financial Watchlist: Myanmar remains on the FATF blacklist, with members urged to maintain enhanced checks. A Myanmar delegation said it had completed 13 of 15 action-plan measures; FATF also called for action against online scams and illicit financial flows. Digital and Transport Investment: Trial 5G services have launched in Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon and Mandalay, while a new steering committee will oversee the Hanthawaddy International Airport project. Trade and Remittances: The government is seeking to channel overseas workers’ remittances through official banks. Meanwhile, fighting near the Thai border has disrupted unofficial crossings, and Myanmar’s military has warned Thai traders against sending goods through KNU-controlled checkpoints.

Worker Remittances: Myanmar is tightening rules to channel overseas earnings through licensed banks and remittance services, while requiring returning workers to show tax payments and recent transfers to qualify for re-entry. Energy Cooperation: Myanmar’s energy minister discussed importing Russian LNG and sharing supplies with Thailand, alongside investment opportunities in Dawei. Border Trade: Thailand suspended unofficial trade for seven days amid fighting near the border; Myanmar’s military also warned Thai traders against sending goods through KNU-controlled areas. Financial Access: FATF kept Myanmar on its blacklist as Japan pressed for its removal, a move that could ease international business. Infrastructure and Telecoms: Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon and Mandalay began 5G trials, while a new steering committee was formed to oversee the Hanthawaddy International Airport project.

Migrant Remittances: Myanmar is tightening rules to route overseas workers’ earnings through official banks and licensed transfer services. Returning workers applying to go back abroad must show three months of remittances and tax payments; applications move to a new Yangon centre from November 1. Energy: Myanmar, Thailand and Russia discussed possible LNG shipments from Russia to Myanmar for shared use, alongside wider energy cooperation and investment around Dawei. Infrastructure: A new steering committee will oversee the Hanthawaddy International Airport project, including coordination, budgets and passenger distribution. Regional Trade: Thailand’s September border trade with Myanmar rose 16.8% year on year to THB16.23 billion, while Thai transit trade surged 71.7% as electronics demand grew. Digital Economy: 5G services are on trial in Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon and Mandalay, with operators planning to expand coverage.

Infrastructure: Myanmar has formed a steering committee to oversee the Hanthawaddy International Airport project, coordinating ministries and regional governments on implementation, budgets and passenger allocation. Digital Economy: 5G services have begun trial use in Naypyitaw, Yangon and Mandalay, with officials citing potential benefits for digital services and businesses. Migrant Remittances: Returning overseas workers must apply for re-entry permission at a new Yangon location and show proof of 2% income-tax payment and remittances of 25% of earnings through approved channels. Financial Links: Japan is urging the FATF to remove Myanmar from its blacklist, arguing that eased transaction checks could support trade and investment, despite continuing concerns over financial crime. Border Trade: Thailand has suspended unofficial border trade for seven days amid fighting in Myanmar, disrupting a key cross-border channel. Sanctions Risk: A Reuters investigation reported that Myanmar disguised Iranian jet fuel as South African diesel to evade sanctions, exposing the risks around the junta’s fuel supply network.

Digital Economy: Myanmar has begun trial 5G services in Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon and Mandalay, with authorities citing potential benefits for digital services and technology-based businesses. Financial Ties: Japan is urging the FATF to remove Myanmar from its high-risk blacklist to ease scrutiny on transactions and support trade, but the watchdog left Myanmar on the list at its latest meeting. Border Trade: Thailand suspended unofficial border trade with Myanmar for seven days amid clashes, disrupting a key cross-border commercial route.

Financial Controls: FATF kept Myanmar on its blacklist, despite Japan’s push to ease enhanced checks on transactions and make business with the country easier. Border Trade: Thailand suspended imports and exports through unofficial crossings for seven days from October 30 as fighting near Mae Sot raised security concerns, disrupting local commerce. Mining Investment: Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing met Russian mining billionaire Vladislav Sviblov to discuss cooperation; Myanmar’s investment commission has also approved 16 proposals, including large-scale gold ventures. Sanctions Risk: Reports say Myanmar used fake paperwork and trade contracts to disguise Iranian aviation fuel as South African diesel, highlighting the compliance risks facing firms dealing with the country.

Financial Access: Japan is pressing the Financial Action Task Force to remove Myanmar from its blacklist, which could ease checks on business transactions. Any change remains undecided, as Myanmar faces scrutiny over illicit finance and scam operations. Border Trade: Thailand suspended unofficial imports and exports near Mae Sot from Oct. 30 to Nov. 5 amid fighting near Myawaddy. The order does not close authorized crossings. Mining Investment: The regime approved 16 investment proposals, including large gold ventures, as Russian mining billionaire Vladislav Sviblov met Min Aung Hlaing to discuss mineral exploration and mining cooperation. Digital Services: Russia’s Rostelecom signed a partnership to promote hotel digital services in Myanmar, drawing on its experience serving 6,000 hotels. Migrant Remittances: A junta requirement that applicants for Thai identity documents prove they send at least a quarter of their wages through official channels, and pay 2% income tax, has fueled a worker boycott and sharply reduced applications.

Energy Push: Myanmar’s regime is reviving the Myitsone dam proposal, touting it as a fix for chronic power shortages despite long-running opposition over displacement and environmental damage. Mining Investment: U Min Aung Hlaing met Russia’s Areal Group chief to discuss mineral exploration and mining cooperation, including balancing operations with environmental protection. Sanctions & Fuel Trade: Reports say Myanmar buyers disguised Iranian aviation fuel as South African diesel using false paperwork, including a $15.8 million deal—raising compliance risks for fuel suppliers and trade partners. Trade Links: The China-Myanmar oil pipeline has delivered more than 100 million tonnes of crude, while Myanmar has also pitched for foreign investment at a Belarus energy forum and signed a bilateral cooperation roadmap.

Mining Cooperation: Myanmar’s military leader met Russia-based Areal Group’s chief on Oct. 28 to discuss mineral exploration and mining, with both sides also raising environmental safeguards. Sanctions and Fuel Trade: Reports say Myanmar used false paperwork and trade contracts to disguise Iranian jet fuel as South African diesel, exposing companies and trade channels to sanctions risks. Rare Earths: Myanmar’s rare-earth exports are surging as Chinese buyers tap the supply, even as control over the industry remains contested. Energy Links: The China-Myanmar crude oil pipeline has delivered more than 100 million tonnes, underscoring its role in regional energy security. Investment: Myanmar promoted foreign investment at a Belarus energy forum and signed a bilateral cooperation roadmap. Agribusiness: Industry coverage points to varietal diversification as the next step for Myanmar’s avocado sector.

Digital Infrastructure: DE-CIX and Thai telecom firm IGC will launch an internet exchange in Bangkok, planned for mid-2027, linking networks across mainland Southeast Asia, including Myanmar. Energy Investment: Myanmar’s energy minister invited foreign partners to invest in oil and gas, renewables, LNG and refinery upgrades at a Belarus forum; the two countries also signed a roadmap on grid modernization and technical training. Sanctions & Trade: Reuters reported that Myanmar used false paperwork to disguise Iranian aviation fuel as South African diesel, highlighting compliance risks in fuel imports. Wages & Resources: A global salary survey put Myanmar’s real wage growth at minus 12.6% in 2026, among the steepest declines tracked. Meanwhile, reports of rising rare-earth exports keep attention on a strategically important resource sector.

Energy Investment: Myanmar’s electricity and energy minister invited foreign partners to invest in oil and gas, renewables, LNG and refinery upgrades at a Belarus forum. The two countries signed a roadmap covering grid modernization, smart technologies and technical training. Property Market: Land and property rights at Mandalay’s collapsed Sky Villa condominium are set for auction in November, with surviving owners given seven days to object and prove ownership. Sanctions and Trade: Reports say Myanmar disguised Iranian aviation fuel as South African diesel using false paperwork, highlighting the risks facing fuel suppliers and trade partners. Agriculture: The avocado industry is looking to diversify varieties, a potential route to broaden production and market opportunities. Resources and Energy: Myanmar’s rare-earth exports are surging, while the China-Myanmar crude oil pipeline has delivered more than 100 million tonnes.

Agriculture & Exports: Myanmar is targeting higher-value avocado exports by blending imported varieties with local fruit. The 2026/27 crop is expected to reach 20,000 tonnes, with China, Thailand, Dubai and Singapore among key markets. Fuel Trade: A Reuters investigation found Myanmar buyers used false paperwork to disguise Iranian jet fuel as South African diesel in a $15.8 million shipment, evading sanctions. Economic Strain: A weakening kyat, import restrictions and scarce foreign currency are driving up prices and squeezing manufacturers, farmers and livestock producers, while foreign investment remains subdued. Rare Earths & Diplomacy: Washington is exploring access to Myanmar’s rare-earth resources as it renews talks with the military-backed government, challenging China’s dominant position in the sector. Energy Links: The China-Myanmar crude oil pipeline has delivered more than 100 million tonnes, reinforcing its role in regional energy supply.

China-ASEAN Trade: Nanning is expanding its regional role through trade, transport and AI. More than 70 firms showcased 500-plus products at the China-ASEAN Expo, generating 28 million yuan in deals, while the newly opened Pinglu Canal adds a major transport link. Sanctions and Banking Risk: Reuters found Myanmar-linked buyers disguised a $15.8 million Iranian jet-fuel shipment as South African diesel to evade US sanctions. Siam Commercial Bank denied that the named Thai trader ever held an account there or did business with the bank. Energy Security: The China-Myanmar crude oil pipeline has delivered more than 100 million tonnes, while Thailand is preparing up to $1.5 billion in rooftop-solar support as it seeks to cut reliance on imported energy, including gas.

Sanctions-Evading Fuel Trade: Myanmar’s foreign-exchange regulator reportedly authorized Iranian aviation fuel to be documented as diesel. Justice for Myanmar says six shipments totaling about 843,000 barrels, worth US$109.6 million, arrived between December 2024 and November 2025. A separate Reuters investigation traced one US$15.8 million cargo aboard the tanker Reef. Energy: China’s Myanmar crude-oil pipeline has carried more than 100 million tonnes since starting operations in 2017, strengthening supply to southwest China. Meanwhile, Thailand plans up to US$1.5 billion in solar subsidies for one million households as declining domestic gas output—including supplies from Myanmar—drives greater reliance on imported LNG. Tourism: Bagan’s first Sky Lantern Festival brought a short-lived boost to local hotels and tour operators, but industry workers say visitor numbers remain weak outside holiday periods.

Sanctions-Evading Fuel Trade: Reuters reports Myanmar buyers disguised Iranian jet fuel as South African diesel, using contracts and import documents to bypass sanctions. A 2025 shipment of about 113,000 barrels was linked to Myanmar’s military authorities, the report says. Energy Shift: Thailand is proposing up to US$1.5 billion in solar subsidies for one million households as it seeks to cut costly energy imports. The move comes as declining gas production in Myanmar pushes Thailand to rely more on imported LNG. China Pipeline: The China-Myanmar crude oil pipeline has carried more than 100 million tonnes since starting operations in 2017, strengthening an energy route into southwest China. Agricultural Trade: India imported 152,800 tonnes of tur from Myanmar in January-August, as part of a 44% rise in its total tur imports. Lower Myanmar offers and subdued demand weighed on prices in recent weeks.